By Yusuke Yamada

The historic election was held in Iraq on January 30, 2004. The Iraqi people voted despite attacks and suicide bombings by minority Sunni insurgents. The results were announced on February 13. It showed that an alliance of Shiite Islamic Parties won 48 percent of the votes. The Kurdish Alliance came second, the secular Shiite list came third, and Sunni-led Iraqis Party came in forth. This election was carried out for the purpose of establishing Iraqi democracy. The time when American forces and multinational forces withdraw from Iraq depends on these results.

The withdrawal of troops depended on Iraqi stabilization and democratization. After a transitional government is set up in Iraq, will it improve the chances for peace in Iraq? It is not likely to improve right away.

Iraq and America need to take measures to avoid confrontation among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. As a result of the election, Shiites, who were oppressed under the Saddam Hussein regime, replaced Sunnis who had ruled the country. The election sweeps away Sunni from power in the Iraqi hierarchy. If Shiites stick to a hard line, Sunnis will absolutely be isolated and terrorism will become increasingly harsh. This will prevent Iraq from establishing a proper democracy. A convention was held in order to call on Sunnis to participate in the new government and integrate Iraq by interim government of president al-Yawer, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, and leader of Sunni-led Party, Abdul Hamid. In spite of such efforts, Sunnis continue suicide bombings against Shiites.

In Iraq there is another big problem concerning the Kurds. Now, approximately 20 to 30 million Kurds exist in the world, and they are fourth largest group in terms of population in the Middle East. However, they donﾕt have their own country, and are divided and living in countries like Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. One concern was whether Kurds could attain autonomy of Kurdish areas in the election. The Kurdish party got the second largest vote with 25 percent, so their position will be guaranteed in Iraq.

Finally, as for Iraqi democratization, though it won't be clear until the formation of the new government at the end of this year, it is certain that the first Arab democracy will begin in the Middle East. Democracy may be the best form of government for all Iraqis. After reaching the final stage of democratization in Iraq, nothing can prevent Iraq from establishing a strong democracy. At present, the time when U.S troops might withdraw from Iraq is thought to be near the end of this year, which would be sometime after the formation of the new government.

Focusing on the future of Iraq, the Iraqi people──the true sovereigns in Iraq──must unite. This means that Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds have to cooperate and integrate themselves. Though an integration convention has been held once, Iraq needs to create a more large-scale convention that attracts all Iraqis and assembles all representatives from all sects and political parties. At such convention Sunnis have to accept the results of the elections; that is, the principle of majority rule. When Iraq becomes more stable, America and multinational forces should withdraw.